What a Masters week!  Another winner for the site with Scottie Scheffler at 40-1 delivering a masterclass performance once again.  Outside of Xander Schauffele, it was an incredible week, as I gave out every podium finisher, with Rory and Cam Smith rounding out the medalists.  With Augusta now in the rearview mirror, it is time to stay hot as we turn our focus to Harbour Town for the RBC Heritage.

The Course

Harbour Town is a 7,100 yard Pete Dye design located on the Atlantic coast in Hilton Head, South Carolina.  Unlike Augusta, where distance is usually a requisite for success, Harbour Town has the lowest average driving distance of any course on tour.  It is a place where shorter hitters can thrive, as the likes of Jim Furyk, Graeme McDowell, and Matt Kuchar have all won here before.  Like many Dye designs, it is positional golf course rewarding accuracy and strategy.  There are many forced layups and is not a place where you can bomb and gouge your way to victory.  With that being said, if you miss off the tee, the rough is relatively non-penal.  Additionally, Harbour Town has some of the smallest greens on tour, which leads to one of the lowest GIR %’s of the year.  A strong around the green game is major plus this week as there will likely be more scrambling than usual.  It is a tough week to model, but should be one that rewards accuracy off the tee, solid approach shots, and a competent short-game.

The Field

Considering its position on the calendar, this is a loaded field.  There are talks of a ‘Masters hangover’, which very well may be true for some players, but that has not stopped 11 of the Top 20 and 25 of the Top 50 in the OWGR from showing up this week.  There are five players listed below 20-1, leading to plenty of value in the mid-range.  I have made the decision to avoid anyone below 20-1 for the remainder of the season and I don’t believe I possess enough information to handicap which of the top guys care this week, especially Cam Smith and Dustin Johnson.  If you want to single bullet guys like Patrick Cantlay or Collin Morikawa, be my guest as they are very logical, but that is not how I will be structuring my card.

Picks to Win

Top Tier (DK $9K or higher)

Shane Lowry (+2400 to Win; +110 to Top 20)

Very few players have been better in 2022 than Shane Lowry, who has not finished worse than T24 in his last ten starts, and is fresh off a T3 at Augusta.  He should have won at the Honda Classic and I believe is very hungry for a stateside victory.  The Irishman was T9 last year and T3 in 2019.   A perfect convergence of form and course history.  My pick to win.

Daniel Berger (+3200 to Win; +125 to Top 20)

DB Straight Vibin’ returns to a venue where he is 4/4 with consecutive Top 15 finishes.  The Rabbi blew a 5-shot lead at the Honda, ultimately finishing 4th, and then finished T13 at The Players.  He is playing good golf, has all the tools to succeed at Harbour Town, and is priced ridiculously.  He has the same win equity as virtually every player in the elite tier, for half the price.  A staple in my DFS lineups and a great bet to Top 20.

Joaquin Niemann (+3700 to Win; +150 to Top 20)

The Joker is one of my favorite young players on tour who is returning to his self-proclaimed favorite course, where he finished T5 in 2020.  He showed flashes of brilliance last week at Augusta, particularly in the first round, before fading over the weekend.  I completely do not understand this price.  He has all the tools to win this week, and it would not surprise me if he repeated his wire-to-wire performance from the Genesis.  

Others: Russell Henley (+3500; +140)

Mid-Tier (DK $7K-8.9K)

Adam Hadwin (+5600; +230 to Top 20)

Hadwin is an elite approach player in the best form of his career.  The Canadian has reeled off three straight Top 10 finishes and has been trending upward this entire season after a rocky 2020-21 performance.  He models out extremely well and I think this is the perfect spot for a Hadwin breakthrough victory.

Tom Hoge (+7400; +260 to Top 20)

Hoge is another elite approach player who should be an auto-bet at any course that doesn’t require distance off the tee.  Hoge just won at a very similar course in Pebble Beach and and has been playing elite golf this entire season.  He continues to be mispriced.

Kevin Streelman (+7500; +260 to Top 20)

Take me to church, Preacher!  It is Easter weekend and The Preacher looks to resurrect his win equity at one of his favorite tracks.  Streelman is 8/11 with five Top 20s and three Top 10s.  He is playing great golf coming in with a run of form of T18-T7-T22.  A perfect convergence of form, history, and price.  

Others: Kevin Kisner (55-1; +305), Chris Kirk (57-1; +230), Kevin Na (59-1; +230)

Low-Tier (DK below $7K)

Joel Dahmen (+14000; +360 to Top 20)

I love Dahmen at short, coastal courses, where he has already proven successful, winning the 2021 edition of the Corales Puntacana Open.  Dahmen is 2/2 in Hilton Head with a T16 in 2019.  He has made five straight cuts and has a game perfectly suited for Harbour Town

Others: Adam Svensson (+20000, +500 to Top 20), Wesley Bryan (+1150 to Top 20)

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