MAKE IT 4 IN A ROW!!! The Texas Flood at 28-1 took down Patrick Cantlay in an epic playoff at the Waste Management, and was the cherry on top to an incredible week down in the desert, with a nearly clean sweep across the board. The TOUR now heads to historic Riviera in Los Angeles with an absolutely loaded field, on par with a major. In fact, the strength of field this week actually exceeds that of the 2019 Masters. Riviera is one of the toughest tracks on TOUR and I expect the cut line to be over par, with the winning score in the low teens. Riviera requires a complete game, as it boasts one of the lowest fairway hit percentages and then if you are lucky enough to put it on the green in regulation, it also has the lowest successful putting percentage both inside and outside of 10 feet. With that being said, it also has four holes that are among the easiest on the entire TOUR, so the opportunities for scoring are there if you can tread water on the more difficult holes. I will be targeting ball-strikers and those with a competent short-game, especially on the difficult poa annua greens.
Disclaimer: The odds of hitting these four outright winners in a row is 1 in 25.9 million.
T20/10/Win
Xander Schauffele (-110/+200/+2300)
Auto-play. The X-Man is always a great play in what I expect to be a grinder of a tournament. The Southern California native is 4/4 at Riviera with an average finish of 15th. After finishing one shot out of the playoff in Scottsdale, he is my pick to win.
Dustin Johnson (-125/+170/+1700)
I feel like people have sort of forgotten how good Dustin Johnson is and possibly more importantly, that he is the all-time earnings leader at Riviera. DJ did not have a great 2021 campaign but his form is trending back to an elite level with a T25 in his first start off an extended layoff at Torrey Pines followed by a T8 in Saudi Arabia. I expect another ho hum Top 20 (or better) finish from DJ this week who has finished T16 or better in 9 of his last 10 starts at Riviera
Will Zalatoris (+120/+220/+3100)
He came oh so close in a playoff at Torrey and now heads to Riviera where he is a perfect course fit. We have had three straight first-time winners…so why not make it four? T15 last year in his tournament debut.
Cam Smith (EV/+175/+2500)
I am extremely bullish on Cam Smith and think he is knocking on the door of joining the elite tier of professional golf. Smith is 5/6 at Riviera with a solo 4th last year, and is now playing some of the best golf of his career, finishing in the Top 20 in 9 of his last 11 starts, with seven Top 10 finishes. He is a proven winner with an elite short game. Fire away.
Others to consider: Leishman (+200), Gooch (+200), Na (+250), Casey (+250), Molinari (+425)
FADE OF THE WEEK
Saheeth Theegala
Theegala was extremely impressive last week and would have won if not for an unlucky bounce into the water on the drivable 17th hole. He was extremely emotional after the round, and now must regroup and head to a course that is extremely punishing off the tee against the best field he has ever played in. At plus money, Riviera member and major champion Franceso Molinari is an auto-bet for me. He’s made three straight cuts and was T8 last year. At bare minimum, you’re getting a free roll on the mental fatigue of Theegala this week.
FULL CARD
Dustin Johnson 1U to Top 20, 0.15U to Win
Xander Schauffele 2U to Top 20, 0.25U to Win
Will Zalatoris 0.85U to Top 20, 0.15U to Win
Cam Smith 1U to Top 20, 0.15U to win
Marc Leishman 0.5U to Top 20, 0.1U to Win
Paul Casey 0.5U to Top 20, 0.1U to Win
Taylor Gooch 0.5U to Top 20, 0.1U to Win
Kevin Na 0.25U to Top 20
Franceso Molinari 0.25U to Top 20, 0.05U to Win, 1U over Theegala
Cactus Capping 