Waste Management Phoenix Open

Welcome to one of the greatest weeks of the year, The People’s Open!  I will be in attendance at TPC Scottsdale and am very excited to see a stacked field in the desert.  Hopefully I can put it all together this week, as I was once again bailed out by an outright longshot winner, with Tom Home cashing a 65-1 ticket, leading a profit of 1.25U for the week.  For those keeping track at home, that is three straight outright winners, and four out of five this season.

This tournament has produced historically chalky winners, and boasts the third highest past performance correlation, trailing just Augusta and Waialae, meaning if you played well here in the past, it is likely to continue.  This narrative makes sense as it is a unique tournament with raucous crowds.  For those who keeping come back year after year, there is certainly a reason, as they enjoy this atmosphere.  I will be combining course history and current form, and will be looking to target elite ball strikers.

T20/10/Win

Jon Rahm (-300 (lol)/-125/+750)

Rambo is 6/6 here with six Top 20s.  He is the best player in the world and lives in Scottsdale and went to college at ASU. This is reflected in his price at +750.  This number is still probably too expensive but I want some Rahm exposure.  I think he is worth a bet to Top 10 at around even money and absolutely no one would be surprised if he won.

Justin Thomas (-150/+130/+1400)

JT is an auto bet at 14-1 considering his course history and current form. He has reeled off four straight Top 20s here including two podium finishes, and has only finished outside the Top 25 once in his last 14 worldwide starts.  I like him down to +1200 and am also playing him at a chalky -150 to Top 20.

Scottie Scheffler (+110/+250/+2800)

Luke List and Tom Hoge have broke their maidens the last two weeks…so why not Scottie Scheffler?  The Texas Flood is long overdue for a victory and this may just be the week.  He checks all the boxes with solid form, a T7 here last year, and elite ball striking.  He seems to be the tout pick of the week, so beware of the mush effect.  

Xander Schauffele (-100/+220/+2000)

4/4 at TPC Scottsdale with four Top 20s.  Easy auto-play for me to back my favorite golfer.  Not much more to it. T2 here last year.

Max Homa (+275/+500/+7000)

The Scottsdale resident is 3/3 at the Phoenix Open and has won three times on TOUR, including twice last season.  His win equity at this price is a serious value, especially at a favorable course.  If his putter gets hot, he could be in contention on Sunday. T6 here in 2020.

K.H. Lee (+350 and +125000)

They call him TPC Lee and he should be played at any TPC Course, as Lee has gained the third most strokes on TPC courses of any golfer on tour over the last two years.  T2 here last year and was a winner at TPC Craig Ranch in 2021.  Way too high of a price for a golfer of his potential.

Also: Playing Sam Burns (+3300), Corey Conners (+5000), and Abe Ancer (+7000) as small darts.  Too much win equity for Burns and Ancer to pass up, and have a gut feeling Conners will contend if he can putt.  

MY CARD:

Rahm: 1U to Top 10 (-125) and 0.25U to Win (+750)

JT: 0.5U to Top 20 (-150) and 0.25U to Win (+1400)

Scheffler: 0.5U to Top 20 (+110), 0.25U to Top 10 (+250), 0.25U to Win (+2800)

Xander: 0.75U to Top 20 (+100); 0.15U to Win (+2000)

Homa: 0.3U to Top 20 (+275) and 0.1U to Win (+7000)

Lee: 0.3U to Top 20 (+350) and 0.1U to Win (+12500)

Burns, Conners, Ancer 0.1U to win outright

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