3M Open Preview

Top 20/10

Tony Finau (+110/+185)

After missing two straight cuts, Finau rounded back into form with a T15 finish at The Open.  Finau is 2/2 in Minneapolis with a T23 in 2019 and a T3 finish last year.  He is also a perfect statistical fit for this week’s birdie fest.  Finau is 10th on TOUR in SG:Tee-to-Green, 37th in SG: Off-The-Tee,  and 19th in par breakers.  If he has an average week putting and around the greens, Finau could very well repeat his performance from last year.  I like Finau to contend, and at the very least, make the cut and give you a fighting chance to cash your ticket come Sunday.    

Cameron Tringale (+145/+320)

Tringale is the perfect blend of course form, current form, and statistical fit.  Tringale is 2/2 in Minneapolis with a T3 last year.  He is 4 for his last 5 including a T14 at the Rocket Mortgage two weeks ago in Detroit and a T26 last week at The Open. Tringale just grinds made cuts, going 13/17 on the year with eight Top 20 finishes.  Additionally, he is the GolfStats.com statistical fit of the week.  Tringale is 47th in SG: Tee-To-Green, 21st in SG: Putting, and 28th in par breakers.  This means he is a good bet to gain strokes relative to the field off the tee, on approach, and while putting, in addition to feasting on the par 5s and short par 4s.  Tringale is underpriced and one of the bets in the field this week.

Emiliano Grillo (+155/+335) (+800 Top Rest of World) (+3300 to Win)

Like Tringale, Grillo appears to be the perfect storm this week in every respect.  He is fresh off a T12 at The Open, was T3 here last year in his only appearance, and also appears to be a statistical match this week, if his remarkably average putter comes to life.  Grillo is a beast in SG: Tee-To-Green and in GIR % ranking 45th and 5th, respectively.  He is also 29th in par breakers, so I expect him to take advantage of the par 5s and short par 4s.  My only hesitation with Grillo is both a blessing and curse—he is 11/18 on the year with eight Top 25 and six Top 15 finishes.  If he makes the cut, which I certainly think he will, his upside is uncapped, but he is undoubtedly a riskier play than Tringale.  +335 to Top 10 is most certainly an appealing proposition, as well as +800 to be Top Rest of the World.

Hank Lebioda (+185/+450) (+4600 to Win)

Outside of Jon Rahm and Seamus Power, there may be no hotter player on TOUR than Hank Lebioda.  He has made seven consecutive cuts, finishing in the Top 20 five times, while reeling off three straight Top 10 finishes to date.  Lebioda is 2/2 in Minneapolis with a T26 and T34, and I don’t see any reason why he won’t make it 3/3 this week.  He is another great statistical fit ranking 18th in GIR% and 24th in SG: Putting.  If he keeps his recent form off the tee going, Lebioda should be right back on the front page of the leaderboard.  It is hard for me to fathom how we are still getting this good of a price on Hank Lebioda.  He is my pick to win this week, and certainly a no-brainer at above +4000. 

Patton Kizzire (+255/+515)

Patton Kizzire just should not be this cheap.  Kizzire has had a great 2021 season going 13/18 with six Top 25 and four Top 10 finishes.  He is trending up, coming off a T25 in Detroit and a T11 at the John Deere.  Additionally, Kizzire is 2/2 in the Twin Cities, albeit with a T34 and T46.  I will take my chances at +255 on a guy who is playing well and who should make the cut this week.  Why I particularly like Kizzire is his statistical fit for this birdie fest.  He is 37th in GIR%, 15th in SG: Putting, and 15th in Par Breakers.  At this price, it is hard to ask for a better value play.   

Matchups

Patrick Rodgers (-110) over JT Poston

This is both a play on Rodgers and a free roll on the mental state of JT Poston after his collapse at the Barbasol last week in which he blew a 4-shot lead before losing in a lengthy playoff to Seamus Power.  I feel as if he will be mentally drained after last week, and he has already locked up his spot in the FedEx Cup playoffs.  Additionally, outside of last week, Poston had been playing terrible, missing 7 of his last 13 cuts, with zero Top 20 finishes.  I am willing to bet that last week was an outlier. 

On the other hand, we have Patrick Rodgers.  Rodgers has made six straight cuts, capped off by a T5 last week, and sits squarely on the bubble at 121st in the FedEx standings.  He is playing good golf, desperately needs another quality performance, and has an experience advantage in the Twin Cities, finishing T32 last year, while this will be Poston’s first appearance.   This is a very similar play to Lebioda v Hicock matchup that I gave out a few weeks ago, and I hope the result is just the same.  I will also be sprinkling on Rodgers at +325 to Top 20.

My Card:

Tony Finau: 1U Top 20; 0.5U Top 10

Cameron Tringale: 1U Top 20; 0.5U Top 10

Emiliano Grillo: 1U Top 20; 0.5U Top 10; 0.15U Top Rest of World; 0.15U To Win

Hank Lebioda: 1U Top 20; 0.5U Top 10; 0.2U To Win

Patton Kizzire: 0.66U Top 20; 0.33U Top 10

Patrick Rodgers: 1.5U over JT Poston; 0.33U Top 20

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